Individual investors are often bombarded with specific stock calls and targets.
However, we believe you can get a better medium to long term perspective by considering asset class, sector, thematic and macro economic views.
To help you, every week, we pour through the research produced by some of the larger institutions, and summarize their market thoughts.
Here are this week’s updates:
Inflation to peak and gradually fall. The Fed could slow the pace of rate hikes in February. US teetering on the edge of a recession. Slower growth to impact US company earnings. While global growth slows, China should accelerate. 60/40 can form the base of investor portfolios again with alternatives used as extra diversification and alpha
2023 expected to be less turbulent for markets, with inflation moderating and major central banks approaching the end of their tightening cycles. 45−55% probability risk of a US recession in 2023. If a recession is averted, moderate-risk diversified portfolio of stocks and bonds expected to provide a total return of 9.0%. If a recession occurs early in the year, corporate earnings and equities will decline but bonds will hedge portfolios by increasing in value.
Global GDP expected to grow 1.5% in 2023 with manufacturing leading. USA to narrowly avoid recession, Fed terminal rate at 4.75%-5%. Europe likely in a recession. China should temporarily support growth as economy reopens. Rate cuts not expected in any major economies this year. Inflation expected to peak and thus favour 5-7y US Treasuries and $EM bonds. Balanced portfolios expected to perform better this year. Underweight DM equities with China equities to outperform.
* Please note these are not the thoughts or analysis of illio but the respective institutions. We have summarized what we believe are key points. We assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site. The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice and the information contained in this website does not constitute investment advice.