Feb 8, 2023

Individual investors are often bombarded with specific stock calls and targets.

However, we believe you can get a better medium to long term perspective by considering asset class, sector, thematic and macro economic views.

To help you, every week, we pour through the research produced by some of the larger institutions, and summarize their market thoughts.

Below are this week’s 3 updates:

US GDP to expand 0.6% over 2023, despite mild three-quarter recession starting in Q2. Euro area real GDP to contract 0.1% for 2023 as a result of elevated inflation and modest wage growth remaining a drag on real household disposable incomes. China analysts raise 2023 real GDP growth forecast by 100bps to 4.8% year on year. This estimate remains below market consensus of 5-5.5%.

Bank Of America
Euro area to avoid recession. US recession delayed. Sharp China rebound expected. Raised global GDP growth for this year to 2.5% from 2.2% low in December. Oil companies and Renewables appeal, despite previous negative market correlation. Brent crude price to peak at quarterly average of $105 per billion barrels in Q3. 20% excess hiring since 2020 will result in more Tech cost cuts.

Credit Suisse
US inflation slowing, expect rates to terminate after25bps March Fed hike. However, Fed remains hawkish and anticipates above 5%terminal rate. ECB maintained guidance of raising rates. Expect 50bp March hike. BoE rate hikes until 4.5% in May. Tight labour market and wage pressures to remain. Market reaction is dovish. China recovery accelerating, index data returns to expansionary territory. China equities to record sustained outperformance.

* Please note these are not the thoughts or analysis of illio but the respective institutions. We have summarized what we believe are key points. We assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site. The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice and the information contained in this website does not constitute investment advice.

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