Individual investors are often bombarded with specific stock calls and targets.
However, we believe you can get a better medium to long term perspective by considering asset class, sector, thematic and macro economic views.
To help you, every week, we pour through the research produced by some of the larger institutions, and summarize their market thoughts.
Below are this week’s 3 updates:
Inflation trending downwards. Modest recessions & 1H23 terminal rates of 5%, 4.5%, & 3% in US, UK, & Euro priced in market. Bonds & stocks to stay positively correlated. Allocation across fixed income curve, overweight short duration and high-yield, specifically Euro gilts & US treasuries. Emerging Market equity valuations attractive from softer USD and China reopening.
US downturn is cyclical. Bear equity market to initially intensify. US 2023 growth forecast above consensus at 2.6% & recession avoidance. Latin America to achieve soft landing. China Q3 growth to significantly rebound at 10%. UK & Euro in recession; -0.7% and -1.7% growth in 2023, rate hikes peaking at 4.5% & 3% in May. Bullish Commodities; likely best performing asset class of 23.
Q1 2023 UK rates peak at 4.25%. US, Euro & UK output contraction in 2023. Fed to remain hawkish. US House Sales down 30-35%. Below-consensus growth forecast in China despite reopening. Bright spot India to grow over 5% in 23. Global equity markets to fall further, pricing S&P500 at 3200 in H1 23. Cash real winner of 23. Expected resource utilisation/reallocation negatively impacts crypto.
* Please note these are not the thoughts or analysis of illio but the respective institutions. We have summarized what we believe are key points. We assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site. The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice and the information contained in this website does not constitute investment advice.
.svg)
