February 15, 2023

Institutional Views: HSBC, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs

Feb 15, 2023

Individual investors are often bombarded with specific stock calls and targets.

However, we believe you can get a better medium to long term perspective by considering asset class, sector, thematic and macro economic views.

To help you, every week, we pour through the research produced by some of the larger institutions, and summarize their market thoughts.

Below are this week’s 3 updates:

Goldman Sachs
China GDP to grow by 6.5% in 2023 on Q4/Q4 basis. China’s rapid reopening pace will result in; most major economies avoiding recession, $15/barrel Brent oil price boost, 0.5% boost to many economies headline inflation, Canada & Latin America to benefit from higher commodity prices and demand. GS Investor survey illustrates many think equity capital markets will double in 2023 with nearly $260 billion ECM issuance activity. Moreover, IPO prospects in TMT and Healthcare appeal.

Strong China rebound from Q2 expected, leading to 2023 and 2024 GDP growth forecasts of 5% and 5.8% respectively. Predicted growth fuelled by consumer spending as a result of Chinese consumers saving $970 billion between 2020 and 2022. Policy support means high yield China property bonds appeal in 2023 on back of recent bond price recovery. India 2023 GDP expansion in 5.5-6% range.

Morgan Stanley
Risk of a recession in Europe has fallen. Euro vs GBP appeals. US to avoid recession. Inflation to lower but will not be a smooth decline. Fed requires more labour market slowing evidence for tightening cycle to end; expect 25bps hikes in March and May (5%-5.25% Terminal rate). Neutral on U.S. Treasuries versus previous overweight recommendation. Neutral stance on USD, versus previous dollar weakening view. Agency mortgage market turned neutral from underweight.

* Please note these are not the thoughts or analysis of illio but the respective institutions. We have summarized what we believe are key points. We assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site. The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice and the information contained in this website does not constitute investment advice.

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