Individual investors are often bombarded with specific stock calls and targets.
However, we believe you can get a better medium to long term perspective by considering asset class, sector, thematic and macro economic views.
To help you, every week, we pour through the research produced by some of the larger institutions, and summarize their market thoughts.
Below are this week’s 3 updates:
Soft landing projected, but downturn risk remains elevated. This is because the Fed will only begin rate cuts once unemployment increases, which may tip the economy into recession. Current slowdown magnitude implies recession would hit around year-end. Constructive time to be a multi-asset class investor. Inflationary pressure cooling in next few months is base case but tightening oil markets pose key risk.
Fed rates peaked, expect pause this month and rate cuts to begin Q2 2024. US 12m recession probability cut to 15% from 20%. This forecast below Bloomberg consensus estimates by 40%. US GDP growth projection above consensus at 2% average through to 2024 end.
Market pricing currently underestimating sticky inflation. Expect rates to remain higher for longer then consensus. Recession risk remains, slowdown beginning to come to fruition, illustrated by unemployment rising to 3.8% and above economists’ estimates. Fed rates peaked and incoming economic weakness means overweight short term US government bonds. Underweight nominal long-dated government bonds on both short and long term horizons as expect to see long-term yields rise further as investors demand greater term premium.
* Please note these are not the thoughts or analysis of illio but the respective institutions. We have summarized what we believe are key points. We assumes no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this site. The information contained herein is not intended to be a source of advice and the information contained in this website does not constitute investment advice.
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